USA TODAY - Here's a look ahead at what's coming up this week in potentially market-moving news.
? The U.S. will release the first estimate of second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on Wednesday morning, and economist expectations have been revised, getting progressively worse with the continual influx of new data from June. Currently, the consensus economist expectation is for annualized growth of 1.0% in the second quarter, though many Street estimates are below that figure. With the consumption, manufacturing, fixed investment, and inflation data we've received so far, we can reasonably expect to see 0.4% to 0.6% annualized growth, with an outside chance that we'll see a quarterly contraction depending on where public spending clocks in.? July's non-farm payroll figure will be released on Friday. This month, economists are expecting to see growth, forecasting 179,000 new jobs added since June. National and regional monthly manufacturing surveys thus far have all shown growth in employment.
? Personal spending and income data from June will also be released on Friday. In June, the payrolls report showed that average hourly earnings accelerated by 0.4% month-over-month, which should provide a tailwind to income. Additionally, tax receipts have picked up in July, which is a positive for both income and spending growth. Retail sales, excluding auto and gas, dropped by 0.1% in June, creating a headwind for consumption growth, which is also being challenged by higher taxes.
? The Federal Open Market Committee will release its latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday, following the GDP and ADP payrolls report that morning. It is unlikely that the Fed will move to reduce asset purchases at the July meeting. A $20-$25 billion cut in asset purchases has been priced into fixed income markets, so if the Fed indicates they are not on that path, Treasuries and other fixed income assets will likely rally.
(Copyright ? 2013 USA TODAY)
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